Ac Milan Vs Napoli : Lineups, Analysis and Prediction

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Ac Milan Vs Napoli Analysis

AC Milan aims to assert themselves early in the season on Tuesday night as they host league leaders Napoli at San Siro.

Currently, Milan has an asterisk in the standings due to the postponement of their match against Bologna on Saturday, which was quite a controversy. Antonio Conte’s team arrives with confidence, sitting atop Serie A.

In his pre-match conference, Paulo Fonseca expressed disappointment about missing the weekend’s match and emphasized that their goal for the season remains the Scudetto.

Game Details

• Date: Tuesday, October 28
• Kick-off: 20:45 (CET)
• Venue: San Siro
• Referee: Andrea Colombo (VAR: Marini)

Team News
Fonseca faces a challenging situation in selecting his squad against Napoli due to significant absences.

Both Theo Hernandez and Tijjani Reijnders were already ruled out for the Bologna match due to suspensions. The postponement means they will now miss the Tuesday match instead.

Alongside these two, Matteo Gabbia is sidelined with a calf injury, ruling him out for several games. Alessandro Florenzi, Ismael Bennacer, and Marco Sportiello are recovering from surgery, while Luka Jovic (back) and Tammy Abraham (shoulder) are also injured.

Starting with the more straightforward substitution, Filippo Terracciano is likely to replace Theo on the left side of defense. He previously filled in against Udinese during Theo’s first suspension, performing adequately.

Fikayo Tomori’s experience against Conte’s sides and Romelu Lukaku suggests he will start, likely partnered by Strahinja Pavlovic rather than Malick Thiaw.

In midfield, Ruben Loftus-Cheek is expected to join Youssouf Fofana, as he currently stands as the first midfield reserve based on appearances.

In goal, Mike Maignan will retain his position. While Tomori seems the ‘certain’ choice in defense, recent reports indicate that Fonseca may favor Malick Thiaw, pairing him with Pavlovic. Terracciano and Emerson Royal will complete the back line.

Regarding midfield dynamics, suggestions of the Rossoneri adopting a ‘more physical’ style have yet to materialize fully. Loftus-Cheek is set to start alongside Fofana, moving away from earlier ideas of him playing as a Trequartista.

Christian Pulisic will occupy the advanced role in midfield, flanked once again by Samuel Chukwueze and Noah Okafor. Alvaro Morata is expected to lead the attack, being the only fit first-team striker.

Predicted Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Emerson, Thiaw, Pavlovic, Terracciano; Fofana, Loftus-Cheek; Chukwueze, Pulisic, Okafor, Morata.

The Opponents
Napoli underwent a transformation in the summer, managing to convince Conte to take charge while investing significantly in the transfer market.

Alessandro Buongiorno arrived from Torino for €35m, Scott McTominay joined from Manchester United for around €30m, and Lukaku signed from Chelsea for €30m, reuniting with his former coach.

David Neres was brought in from Benfica for €28m, Billy Gilmour joined from Brighton for €14m, and Rafa Marin arrived from Real Madrid for €12m, totaling €149.5m in summer expenditure.

The notable outgoing was Victor Osimhen, who was loaned to Galatasaray after a prolonged transfer saga. Leo Ostigard was the only player to leave permanently for a fee (€7m to Rennes), while several others departed.

Many anticipated potential friction between Conte and Napoli following their 3-0 loss to Hellas Verona in the opening round, where he commented on the squad’s incompleteness. However, they have since achieved eight victories in nine matches, with their only slip being a 0-0 draw against Juventus.

A challenging stretch lies ahead for a team that benefits from the absence of European competition. After facing Milan, the Partenopei will take on Atalanta at home, Inter away, Roma at home, Torino away, and Lazio at home.

Currently, they boast the league’s joint-best defense, conceding only five goals in nine games (three in the opening match), and after Inter’s 4-4 draw with Juventus, they sit four points clear at the top.

Compared to their opponents, Napoli is mostly healthy. Nikita Contini, nursing muscle fatigue, is expected to miss the match, as is Stanislav Lobotka. Although Leonardo Spinazzola was initially doubtful, he appears to have recovered.

Conte will likely deploy his team in a standard 4-3-3 formation. Meret, Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Buongiorno, and Spinazzola will form the back line, with Spinazzola returning from injury.

In midfield, Billy Gilmour is anticipated to retain his spot from the recent win over Lecce, given Lobotka’s absence. McTominay and Anguissa will likely fill the remaining midfield roles, with McTominay assuming the Trequartista position.

Up front, Conte is set to bring back Politano and Kvaratskhelia, who missed the weekend fixture, positioning them on either side of Romelu Lukaku.

Predicted Napoli XI (4-3-3): Meret; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Buongiorno, Spinazzola; Anguissa, Gilmour, McTominay; Politano, Lukaku, Kvaratskhelia.

Head-to-Head
Milan and Napoli have faced each other 175 times over nearly 125 years, with Milan having only played against seven teams more. The record shows 70 wins, 54 draws, and 51 losses, resulting in a win rate of 40%.

Last season featured two exciting encounters, the first ending in a 2-2 draw. Olivier Giroud’s double put the Rossoneri ahead after 30 minutes, but Politano and Raspadori equalized in the second half.

In the return fixture, Milan secured a 1-0 victory at San Siro, thanks to a well-worked goal where Rafael Leao’s through ball set up Theo Hernandez. Fans might recall this as the match where the black ‘Pleasures’ fourth kit was unveiled.

Napoli endured a long stretch without beating the Diavolo at San Siro from 1986 to 2013 but have since won five of their last twelve encounters, including three of the last five.

Key Facts and Stats
➤ Milan has triumphed in three of the last five Serie A matches against Napoli (D1 L1), equaling their total wins in the previous 22 league encounters with the Partenopei (W3 D8 L11).

➤ Napoli remains unbeaten in eight of their last nine Serie A away games against Milan (W5 D8), losing only the most recent, a 0-1 defeat on February 11, 2024 (goal by Theo Hernández). The last time Milan achieved consecutive home league wins against Napoli was from 2000 to 2008 (three wins).

➤ Milan has won just one of the last nine meetings with Napoli in the first half of a Serie A season (D2 L6), which was a 3-1 victory on November 22, 2020 (with Ibrahimovic scoring twice and Hauge netting for Milan, while Mertens scored for Napoli).

➤ Among teams that have played multiple Serie A games on Tuesdays, Napoli holds the highest goals-per-game average at 2.4 (31 goals in 13 matches); conversely, Milan has failed to score in their last three league games played on Tuesdays, though they kept clean sheets in three of the last four (the only exception being a 0-4 loss to Lazio on January 24, 2023).

➤ Milan has registered clean sheets in three of their last five Serie A matches, matching their total from the preceding 14 games, and they could achieve consecutive shutouts for the first time since last March (against Lazio and Empoli).

➤ Milan has recorded three consecutive home wins in Serie A without conceding for the first time since May 2022, and their last better run dates back to four consecutive wins between March and May 2014.

➤ Napoli is unbeaten in their last three Serie A away games, having won two of them (D1), matching the number of victories they had achieved in their previous 13 away league games (W2 D5 L6).

➤ Christian Pulisic has been involved in at least one goal in each of his last seven league appearances (five goals and three assists); since 2004/05, only one Milan player has been involved in more consecutive goal contributions in a single Serie A season: Zlatan Ibrahimovic (10 between October and December 2010).

➤ Theo Hernández will be unavailable for the match against Napoli due to suspension. Over the last three seasons (since 2022/23), Milan has won 54% of their matches with the Frenchman on the pitch (54 out of 101), averaging 1.9 goals per game; however, without him, the Rossoneri’s win rate drops to 29% (4 out of 14), with an average of 0.8 goals.

➤ Matteo Politano has netted five goals against Milan in Serie A, the highest against any opponent in the competition (five also against Genoa); additionally, the Napoli striker has scored five away goals at San Siro; in the last decade, only Fabio Quagliarella (six) and Domenico Berardi (seven)